ISBN 978-92-2-132968-8 (web pdf) decent work / labour productivity / climate change / temperature / stress / environment deterioration / employment / labour
526 KB – 98 Pages
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Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy editing, layout and composition, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution. First published 2019 Working on a warmer planet: The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data
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3fiIt™s too hot to work today!fl For many of us, an exclamation like the above is a way of giving vent to our annoyance at the occasional inconveniences of the hottest months of the year. For millions of workers across the world, it is a sign of distress. For many economies, it is a threat to their productivity. The phenomenon of heat stress refers to heat received in excess of that which the body can tolerate without physiological impairment. Heat stress affects, above all, outdoor workers such as those engaged in agriculture and on construction sites. It is a serious problem for a large proportion of the world™s 1 billion agricultural workers and 66 million textile workers (many of whom have to work inside factories and workshops without air conditioning), and for workers employed, inter alia, in refuse collection, emergency repair work, transport, tourism and sports. Temperatures exceeding 39°C can kill. But even where there are no fatalities, such temperatures can leave many people unable to work or able to work only at a reduced rate. Some groups of workers are more vulnerable than others because they suffer the effects of heat stress at lower temperatures. Older workers, in particular, have lower physiological resistance to high levels of heat. Yet they represent an increasing share of workers Œ a natural consequence of population ageing. Heat stress, moreover, can be one of many factors prompting people to migrate. By 2030 the equivalent of more than 2 per cent of total working hours worldwide is projected to be lost every year, either because it is too hot to work or because workers have to work at a slower pace. In Southern Asia and Western Africa the resulting productivity loss may even reach 5 per cent. Unfortunately, heat stress is often accompanied by other challenges as it is more prevalent in countries poverty. Excessive heat levels aggravate inequality between rich and poor countries, and between population groups within the same country. Heat stress is increasingly becoming an obstacle to economic activity. It reduces the ability of busi -nesses to operate during the hottest hours. Adapting to these new and threatening conditions is costly. Even if it does prove possible to limit global warming by the end of the century to 1.5°C above pre- by 2030. If nothing is done now to mitigate climate change, these costs will be much higher as global temperatures increase even further towards the end of the century. Solutions do exist. In particular, the structural transformation of rural economies should be speeded up so that fewer agricultural workers are exposed to high temperatures and so that less physical effort has to be expended in such conditions. Other important policy measures that can help are skills devel -opment, the promotion of an enabling environment for sustainable enterprises, public investment in infrastructure, and improved integration of developing countries into global trade. At the workplace level, enhanced information about on-site weather conditions, the adaptation of workwear and equip -ment, and technological improvements can make it easier for workers and their employers to cope with higher temperatures. Employers and workers should discuss together how to adjust working hours, in addition to adopting other occupational safety and health measures. Accordingly, social dialogue is a relevant tool for improving working conditions on a warming planet. International collaboration and the coordination of joint efforts are a key part of the package of solutions to the problem of heat stress. This report has been prepared in part to follow up on the ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all, which invite governments, in consultation with the social partners, to conduct assessments of increased or new occupational safety and health risks resulting from climate change or other risks related to human health and the environment, and identify adequate prevention and protection measures that seek to ensure occupational safety and health. Furthermore, in March 2017, the ILO Preface
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4Governing Body requested the Director-General to promote further discussion, knowledge and under -standing of the implications of climate change for the world of work, particularly for those most affected and vulnerable. be tackled, above all, by promoting occupational safety and health, social dialogue and structural transformation in agriculture, and by encouraging the development of responsible and sustainable, or figreenfl, businesses. Such an integrated approach was also taken in 2019 by the Global Commission on the Future of Work, which highlighted the need for a universal labour guarantee that includes health and safety standards in all places of work. Damian Grimshaw Vic van Vuuren Director, Research Department Director, Enterprises Department
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5This report was prepared by the Work Income and Equity Unit (led by Catherine Saget) of the ILO Research Department, under the guidance of its Directors a.i. Moazam Mahmood and Sangheon Lee, and Director Damian Grimshaw. The main authors of the report are Tord Kjellstrom (independent expert), Nicolas Maître, Catherine Saget, Matthias Otto (independent expert) and Tahmina Karimova, with inputs from Trang Luu, Adam Elsheikhi, Guillermo Montt, Bruno Lemke (independent expert), Antoine Bonnet, Marek Harsdorff, Chris Freyberg (independent expert), David Briggs (independent expert) and Angela Giannini. The team wishes to thank Marek Harsdorff and Moustapha Kamal Gueye from the ILO™s Green Jobs Programme for their support, close collaboration and valuable contributions. The team also wishes to thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments. The team would like to acknowledge the inputs, helpful comments and suggestions for improvement received from the following ILO colleagues past and present: Adam Adrien-Kirby, Antonia Asenjo, Floriana Borino, Kazutoshi Chatani, Ryszard Cholewinski, Marva Corley-Coulibaly, Anne Drouin, Sara Elder, Ekkehard Ernst, Veronica Escudero, Marialaura Fino, Claire Harasty, Carla Henry, Houtan Homayounpour, Lawrence Jeff Johnson, Sophia Kagan, Takaaki Kizu, Stefan Kühn, Heike Lautenschlager, Nancy Leppink, Hannah Liepmann, Christina Martinez, Santo Milasi, Lene Olsen, Martin Ostermeier, Clemente Pignatti, Uma Rani, Pelin Sekerler Richiardi, René Robert, Ken Chamuva Shawa, Pamphile Sossa, Domenico Tabasso, Mito Tsukamoto, Max Tunon, Yuka Ujita, Christian Viegelahn and Hans von Rohland. Special mention should also be made of Judy Rafferty for her assistance in the publication process and of Béatrice Guillemain for her administra -tive support. Acknowledgements
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8Boxes 3.1 Heat stress and vulnerable outdoor workers in the city of Bulawayo in Zimbabwe 37 5.1 Heat-related risks and occupational safety and health measures in the GCC countries 53 6.1 Occupational heat stress and brickmaking workers in India 59 6.2 The impact of outdoor occupational heat stress in the Islamic Republic of Iran 60 6.3 Extreme heat and migration in Pakistan 60 6.5 The impact of climate change on the labour market in Thailand 62 7. Europe and Central Asia 65 7.1 Current and projected heat levels 65 7.2 Labour market trends 66 7.3 Subregional and national estimates 67 8. Employment and labour market policies Part I. Adapting to heat-related hazards through international labour standards and tripartism 73 9. Employment and labour market policies Part II. Complementary mitigation efforts to reduce heat-related hazards 83 Conclusion 87 Appendix I. Detailed methodology 89 Appendix II. Comparison of in-shade and in-sun estimates 93 ˚Bibliography 97
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Table of contents 9Figures 2.1 Estimated incidence of heat stress worldwide in 1995 22 2.3 Sectoral composition of total employment by subregion, 1995 and projections income group, 1995 and projections for 2030 27 2.5 Working hours lost to heat stress by subregion, 1995 and projections for 2030 (percentages) 27 2.6 Working hours lost to heat stress by sector, 1995 and projections 2.7 Correlation between estimated labour productivity loss due to heat stress of (A) own-account and contributing family workers; and (B) working poverty, all world subregions, 2015 31 2.9 Correlation between labour productivity loss due to heat stress, 2015 and (A) informality; and (B) social security coverage, selected countries, latest available year 31 2.10 Correlation between GHG emissions and labour productivity loss due to heat stress, all world subregions, 2012 and 2015 32 3.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in Africa, 3.2 Breakdown of total employment in Africa, by sector and subregion, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 35 3.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 39 5.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in the Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 50 5.2 Breakdown of total employment by sector, Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 51 5.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 56 1995 and 2030 (projections) 57 6.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, 7.1 Incidence of heat stress during the hottest month in Europe and Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 66 7.2 Breakdown of total employment by sector, Europe and Central Asia subregions, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 67 7.3 Percentage of GDP lost to heat stress under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, ten most affected countries in Europe and Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 70 9.1 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 climate change scenarios, Ghana, Cambodia, Panama,
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10AI.1 Estimated exposureŒresponse relationships for reduced hourly work capacity AII.1 Percentages of global working hours lost to heat stress, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 93 AII.2 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress calculated using in-sun AII.3 Percentages of working hours lost to heat stress, Cambodia, Ghana, Chad and India, Tables 1.1 Heat stress impacts on work in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals 20 2.1 Annual average temperature in world subregions in 1995 and projected increases 2.2 Summary of data sources and models used, and of analytical steps performed 26 3.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Northern Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 35 3.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Central Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 36 3.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Eastern Africa, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 37 3.5 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Western Africa, 5.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Arab States, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 52 6.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country/territory, Eastern Asia, 6.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Southern Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 59 6.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, South-East Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 62 1995 and 2030 (projections) 63 7.1 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Eastern Europe, 7.2 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Southern Europe, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 69 7.3 Working hours lost to heat stress, by sector and country, Central Asia, 1995 and 2030 (projections) 69 1995 and 2030 (projections) 70
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13Executive summary Global warming will make heat stress and extreme weather events more common Climate projections point towards an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and one result of this trend is the loss of jobs and productivity. The rise in global temperatures caused by climate change will also make the phenomenon of fiheat stressfl more common. Heat stress refers to heat received in excess of that which the body can tolerate without suffering physiological impairment. Such excess heat increases workers™ occupational risks and vulnerability; it can lead to heatstroke and, ultimately, even to death. The proliferation of so-called fiurban heat islandsfl, areas of concentrated heat inside cities resulting from growing population numbers and urbanization, will further intensify the impact of heatwaves, aggravating the risks faced by workers. The world of work™s response to global warming should include: adaptation policies and actions to protect workers from these conditions; an overall strategy to mitigate climate change and limit further temperature increases; structural reforms to help agricultural workers achieve the transition to other sectors; and measures to prepare for climatic hazards. Equally important is a coherent approach to sustainable economic development. Heat is an occupational safety and health hazard Excessive heat during work creates occupational health risks; it restricts a worker™s physical func – 50 per cent of his or her work capacity. Exposure to excessive heat levels can lead to heatstroke, sometimes even with a fatal outcome. Workers in all sectors are affected, but certain occupations are especially at risk because they involve more physical effort and/or take place outdoors. Such jobs are typically found in agriculture, environmental goods and services (natural resource management), construction, refuse collection, emergency repair work, transport, tourism and sports. Industrial workers in indoor settings are also at risk if temperature levels inside factories and workshops are Heat stress is projected to reduce total working hours worldwide by˜2.2 per cent and global GDP by˜US$2,400˜billion in 2030 also on labour force trends, suggest that, in 2030, 2.2 per cent of total working hours worldwide however, a conservative estimate because, apart from postulating that the long-term increase in global mean temperature will not exceed 1.5°C, it rests on the assumption that agricultural and construction work is carried out in the shade. This assumption is based partly on the fact that in tropical countries in subsistence agriculture, can often be moved to times of the day when it is less hot. If, instead, we assume that agricultural and construction work is carried out in the sun, the projected loss of working global warming continues beyond 2030, greater temperature rises are expected to diminish labour productivity even further. most pronounced in lower-middle- and low-income countries.
526 KB – 98 Pages