Jul 23, 2020 — Ocean plastic pollution: Challenges and opportunities in a complex system. 17 NCE_Economic-environmental-gains-food-waste.pdf.
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3PREFACE 4EXPERT PANEL 5ENDORSEMENTS 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: TEN CRITICAL FINDINGS 8FAST FACTS: ‚BREAKING THE PLASTIC WAVE™ IN NUMBERS 14INTRODUCTION: PLASTIC, THE OCEAN, AND THE GLOBAL DEBATE 16Ocean plastic pollution: Challenges and opportunities in a complex system 17About this project: A global stochastic model 18CHAPTER 1. AN UNTENABLE TRAJECTORY˜THE IMPERATIVE TO ADDRESS THE OCEAN PLASTIC POLLUTION CRISIS 24Super growth: Business-as-Usual will have nearly three times more plastic leaking into the ocean in 2040 25Falling short: Current commitments are inadequate for the scale of the challenge 30No panacea: Single-solution strategies cannot stop plastic pollution 31CHAPTER 2. CHANGING THE SYSTEM˜A STRATEGY TO REDUCE OCEAN PLASTIC POLLUTION RATES BY 80 PER CENT 37A viable pathway: An integrated circular strategy can o˜er better economic, environmental, and social outcomes 39A workable agenda : Eight synergistic system interventions can break the cycle of ocean plastic pollution 47 Œ Macroplastic system interventions 48 Œ Microplastic system interventions 89 Œ Maritime sources of leakage 96CHAPTER 3. BRIDGING THE GAP˜INNOVATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR A FUTURE WITH NEAR˚ZERO PLASTIC POLLUTION 99Alternative worlds: Sensitivities and design choices for pollution reduction strategies 100The innovation gap: Near-zero leakage requires signi˚cant innovation 101CHAPTER 4. THE TIME IS NOW˜SUCCESS REQUIRES ALL PLAYERS TO TAKE RAPID AND CONCERTED ACTION 104A substantial transition: Investments in the new system are signi˚cant, but returns are attractive 105From theory to action: Unprecedented and resolute action from all stakeholders is required to stop plastic pollution 106Regional priorities: Applying di˜erent solutions for di˜erent geographies 114The cost of waiting: Delaying implementation of the system interventions from 2020 to 2025 would add 80 million metric tons more plastic to the ocean 116CONCLUSION 119APPENDIX A: KEY ASSUMPTIONS AND DATA SOURCES 120APPENDIX B: SYSTEM MAPS 129GLOSSARY 137ENDNOTES 140ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 150THOUGHT PARTNERS 152 Table of contents Cover: Willyam Bradberry/ShutterstockAbout The Pew Charitable Trusts The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today™s most challenging problems. Pew applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the public, and invigorate civic life. As the United States and the world have evolved, we have remained dedicated to our founders™ emphasis on innovation. Today, Pew is a global research and public policy organization, still operated as an independent, nonpartisan, nonpro˜t organization dedicated to serving the public. Informed by the founders™ interest in research, practical knowledge, and public service, our portfolio includes public opinion research; arts and culture; civic initiatives; and environmental, health, state, and consumer policy initiatives. Our goal is to make a di˚erence for the public. That means working on a few key issues, with an emphasis on projects that can produce consequential outcomes, foster new ideas, attract partners, avoid partisanship or wishful thinking, and achieve measurable results that serve the public interest. Learn more at https://www.pewtrusts.org/en For more information, contact us at PreventingOceanPlastics@pewtrusts.org About SYSTEMIQ SYSTEMIQ Ltd. is a certi˜ed B Corp with o˛ces in London, Munich, and Jakarta. The company was founded in 2016 to drive the achievements of the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by transforming markets and business models in three key economic systems: land use, materials, and energy. Since 2016, SYSTEMIQ has been involved in several system change initiatives related to plastics and packaging, including the New Plastics Economy initiative (Ellen MacArthur Foundation) and Project STOP (a city partnership programme focused on eliminating plastic pollution in Indonesia), among others. At the heart of our work is the core belief that only a smart combination of policy, technology, funding, and consumer engagement can address system-level challenges. The global plastics challenge is no di˚erent. Learn more at https://www.systemiq.earth/ For more information, contact us at OceanPlastics@systemiq.earth

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54 Preface This work was developed in partnership with an expert panel representing all relevant disciplines and geographies: Expert panel Richard Bailey Professor of Environmental Systems University of Oxford Mao Da Executive director Shenzhen Zero Waste Jutta Gutberlet Professor University of Victoria Ellie Moss Senior adviser Encourage Capital Costas Velis Lecturer University of Leeds Julien Boucher Co-founder Quantis and Shaping Environmental Action Enzo Favoino Researcher Scuola Agraria del Parco di Monza Edward Kosior Managing director NextekDaniella Russo Co-founder and CEO Think Beyond Plastic Jill Boughton FounderWaste2Worth Innovations Malati Gadgil Independent consultant Informal sector waste managementCrispian Lao Founding president Philippine Alliance for Recycling and Material SustainabilityUssif Rashid Sumaila Professor University of British Columbia Arturo Castillo Research fellow Imperial College London Linda Godfrey Principal researcher Council for Scienti˚c and Industrial Research Daniela LerarioTriciclos Brazil Richard Thompson Professor University of Plymouth In recent years, an increasing number of studies and reports have advanced the global understanding of the challenge posed by ocean plastic pollution. But most leaders across industry, government, and civil society have noted a critical gap: an evidence-based roadmap to describe the pathways available and to foster convergent action. As a step towards building that roadmap, The Pew Charitable Trusts partnered with SYSTEMIQ to build on previous research and create this ˚rst-of-its-kind model of the global plastics system, with results suggesting that there is an evidence-based, comprehensive, integrated, and economically attractive pathway to greatly reduce plastic pollution entering our ocean. The ˚ndings of our analysis were published in the peer-reviewed journal, Science on 23 July 2020. The speed at which ocean plastic pollution has climbed up the public agenda has been surprising. Yet, even as the world starts to comprehend the enormity of the challenge, major actors disagree on the solution. In preparing fiBreaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution,fl we consulted an extensive group of stakeholders from academia, industry, government, and nongovernmental organizations, who without exception shared the concern and demonstrated willingness to actŠbut often o˜ered contradictory solutions. We then developed perhaps the most comprehensive plastic system modelling tool to create a global analysis that evaluates various strategies to reduce ocean plastic ˛ows and quanti˚es the associated economic, environmental, and social implications of each pathway. The ultimate aim of this work is to help guide policymakers, industry executives, investors, and civil society leaders through highly contested, often data-poor, and complex terrain. Our analysis includes several key ˚ndings that could help de˚ne changes to the global system that are necessary to stop plastic pollution from ˛owing into the ocean. The research supporting this report involved 17 experts from across the spectrum of people looking at the plastic pollution problem and with broad geographical representation, and was undertaken by our two independent organizations in collaboration with four partner institutionsŠ the University of Oxford, University of Leeds, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, and Common Seas. In addition, the project team drew upon major publications, analyses, and reports, and consulted more than 100 independent experts, to develop and populate the model. These experts represented the plastic supply chain, academia, and civil society, and neither they nor their institutions necessarily endorse the report™s ˚ndings. fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl follows two reports from the Ellen MacArthur Foundation that established the vision of a circular economy, aimed at eliminating waste and encouraging the continual use of resources by reusing, redesigning, and recycling. This concept has garnered unprecedented support across the global plastics system. By highlighting the systemic link between better plastic design, reuse, improved recycling economics, and increased collection incentives, these reports provided a central theme for the challenge addressed in fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl: how to apply the concept of a circular economyŠalong with increased reduction and substitution of plastics, and better waste managementŠin a way that urgently addresses this serious environmental challenge. The model is already being applied at the national level in Indonesia under the public-private collaboration Global Plastic Action Partnership. Our hope is that the results of fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl can serve as a map for policy leaders, decision-makers, and businesses in search of solutions to stem the ˛ow of plastic into the ocean. This model can also be updated by stakeholders on an ongoing basis to inform solutions to the plastics pollution problem. The problem of ocean plastic pollution was created in a lifetime, and we have reason to believe that it can be solved within a generation, or sooner. But such a solution requires political leaders, policymakers, business executives, and investors to shift from incremental to systemic change. Among our ˚ndings, one is particularly stark: On the current trajectory, which we call Business-as-Usual, annual ˛ows of plastic into the ocean could nearly triple by 2040. What™s more, even if all current major industry and government commitments are met, the world would see a reduction in annual rates of plastic pollution ˛owing into the ocean of only 7 per cent from the Business-as-Usual scenario. Yet we also show that if the world were to apply and robustly invest in all the technologies, management practices, and policy approaches currently availableŠincluding reduction, recycling, and plastic substitutionŠin 20 years there would be about an 80 per cent reduction from the current trajectory in the ˛ow of plastic into the ocean. And the new solutions recommended in this report would provide consumers with the same services that plastic delivers todayŠat a lower cost to society. We hope that the fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl concepts, data, and analyses inform decision-makers who are responsible for setting industry and government action. The report™s most important message is that, with the right level of action, tackling the problem of plastics pollution may be remembered as a success story on the human ability to rethink and rebuild systems that can sustainably support lives and livelihoods while the environment thrives. Tom Dillon Vice President & Head of Environment The Pew Charitable Trusts Martin R. Stuchtey Founder & Managing Partner SYSTEMIQ

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76 Endorsements Professor Juliet A. Gerrard, chief science advisor to the Prime Minister of New Zealand fiThis is a seminal piece of work on a topic of global importance. It will guide countries to align and unite as we move to conquer the plastic problem.fl Dame Ellen MacArthur, founder and chair of trustees, Ellen MacArthur Foundation fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl brings an unprecedented level of detail into the global plastic system, con˜rming that without fundamental change, annual ˚ows of plastic into the ocean could nearly triple by 2040. To turn the tide on plastic waste and pollution, we need to radically increase our e˛orts and speed up the transition to a circular economy. We must eliminate the plastics we don™t need, and drastically reduce virgin plastic use. We need to innovate to create new materials and business models based on reuse and re˜ll systems. And we need improved infrastructure to ensure that all plastics we use are circulated in the economy and never become waste or pollution. The question is not whether a circular economy for plastic is possible, but what we will do together to make it happen.fl Ramon Laguarta, chairman and CEO, PepsiCo fiAddressing the challenge of plastic waste is both urgent and complex and will require accelerated, collective action and a transformation of the way society thinks about single-use plastics. This report calls for immediate bold action in the global e˛ort to stem the tide of ocean plastics. It makes clear that through increased collaboration, across industries, we can help create systems change, build a circular economy for packaging, and turn the corner on ocean plastics.fl Von Hernandez, global coordinator, Break Free From Plastic fiBreak Free From Plastic (BFFP) welcomes fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl as a helpful addition to the global conversation about this rapidly growing threat to human and ecosystem health. fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl demonstrates that no solution to the plastic crisis is possible without prioritizing urgent action to reduce the quantity of plastic used and produced. The report makes clear that existing private-sector commitments and public policies to limit plastic pollution are wholly inadequate and demonstrates that industry™s expansion plans will produce even more staggering quantities of plastic pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and irreversible damage to the ocean. While we agree with the report™s general recommendation calling for a radical system change in how the world deals with plastic, we disagree that certain technologies analyzed in the reportŠincluding incineration, chemical recycling, and plastic-to-fuelŠare part of that solution, as they will only perpetuate the problem as we see it. Above all, this report should serve as a wake-up call to governments: They must step in to halt the expansion of plastic production. Only then can we begin to see signi˜cant and sustained decline of plastic leakage into the oceans and to the environment.fl Erin Simon, head, plastic and business, World Wildlife Fund fiIf we™re going to signi˜cantly reduce ocean plastic pollution, we need an innovative and rigorous approach to ensure that the strategies we design are set up to delivering results. This research does exactly that. By identifying a modelling approach that looks at plastic pollution holistically, we™re able to better measure the environmental, economic, and social impact of the strategies being considered, and call for a greater level of ambition and immediate action from all stakeholders. This deeper understanding will help companies, governments, and other stakeholders to strengthen their e˛orts on plastic pollution. It will continue to be crucial to monitor and evaluate strategies on the ground to ensure that we as a society are delivering against our ambition.fl Her Excellency Ms. Thilmeeza Hussain, ambassador of the Maldives to the United States and permanent representative of the Maldives to the United Nations fiThis report is an important contribution to understanding the nature of the marine plastic pollution problem and provides many important ideas and proposals that diplomats and other actors will need to consider in deciding how the global community can e˛ectively address this pressing problem.fl Inger Andersen, U.N. under-secretary-general and executive director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) fiBreaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollutionfl comes at a critical time to inform global discussions and help decision-makers evaluate options that will eliminate the long-term ˚ow of plastic and microplastics into the ocean. By providing the evidence base for a way forward, the study convincingly shows the need for system-wide change and urgent action across the entire value chain. It inspires by demonstrating that projected plastic leakage can be reduced by 80% with existing solutions. The next two years will be critical in getting the world on a zero-plastic pollution path. We need to catalyse rapid transition; we need to act now!fl Marisa Drew, CEO, impact advisory and ˜nance department, Credit Suisse fiDespite the awareness-raising and global e˛orts to reduce plastic production, consumption, and waste in our oceans, the current trajectory points to a dire outcome without a concerted e˛ort to mobilise industry, civil society, and governments to address this critical environmental issue. This well-researched, peer-reviewed report from The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ provides a roadmap for the investment and innovation required to tackle the challenge. The report also shows us that economically viable solutions exist today that are implementable if all relevant stakeholders across the value chain act with urgency. Grant Reid, CEO, Mars Inc. fiWe applaud the depth and rigor of this report on what™s necessary to stop ocean plastic pollution. Mars is committed to being a part of the transformational system change that this issue requires. We™re taking action by removing packaging we don™t need, exploring reuse models, redesigning what we do need for circularity, and investing to close the packaging waste loop with recycling systems that work for business and communities. We have much to do, so we must work together as a global community like never before.fl Melati Wijsen, founder, Bye Bye Plastic Bags fiSince starting to campaign against plastic pollution at 12 years old, I have seen numerous e˛orts come and go. Being born and raised in Bali, Indonesia, it was like watching the problem of plastic grow up with you. This is why we understood early on the importance of data and consistency. It is beyond exciting to hear that my home country has already applied the model featured in fiBreaking the Plastic Wave.fl The only way forward is collaboration and persistence; let™s turn the tide on plastic pollution once and forever.fl Laura Tuck, vice president for sustainable development, World Bank* fiThe plastic problem took a lifetime to create and could be solved in a generation. That™s the stark message of fiBreaking the Plastic Wave,fl a welcome and comprehensive look at what we need to doŠat every layer of societyŠto clean up the mess we are making. Its positive message is that we already have the solutions we need to address the challenge. But we will need to step up with multi-stakeholder coalitions that can tackle each element of the agenda as they are laid out here.fl * Retired from the World Bank as of April 1, 2020 Andrew Steer, president and CEO, World Resources Institute fiThe ocean is being ˜lled with plasticŠhurting sea life and the billions of people who depend on the ocean for food, livelihoods and recreation. This is entirely unnecessary and unacceptable. This new important report, fiBreaking the Plastic Wavefl presents important solutions that can reduce plastic ˚ows by 80% over the next 20 years. It is urgent that industry and government leaders follow these recommendations Œ starting today.fl

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98The ˛ow of plastic into the ocean is projected to nearly triple by 2040. Without considerable action to address plastic pollution, 50 kg of plastic will enter the ocean for every metre of shoreline. Our analysis shows that a future with approximately 80 per cent (82 ±13 per cent*) less annual plastic leakage into the ocean relative to business as usual is achievable by 2040 using existing technologies. This pathway provides bene˝ts to communities, to governments, and even to industry. However, it depends on the immediate, ambitious, and concerted global implementation of solutions across the entire plastics value chain. This vision for system change represents an attractive and viable way forward. * All ˚gures stated in parentheses are 95 per cent con˚dence intervals, unless otherwise speci˚ed. The range is given where distributions are not symmetrical. Plastic pollution in the ocean is a major environmental challenge, yet a coherent global strategy to solve this growing crisis remains elusive. It is a by-product of fundamental ˛aws in an essentially linear plastic system in which 95 per cent of aggregate plastic packaging valueŠ US$80 billion-US$120 billion a yearŠis lost to the economy following a short ˚rst-use cycle. 1Very di˜erent responses to the crisis have been proposed, from eliminating plastic entirely to turning it into fuels, and from developing biodegradable substitutes to recycling plastic back into usable products. Each solution comes with advantages and drawbacks. Understanding the e˜ectiveness of di˜erent solutions, and the related economic, environmental, and social implications, is crucial to making progress towards stopping ocean plastic pollution. Here we lay out our report™s 10 critical ˚ndings, showing that a path forward to a low plastic pollution future already existsŠnow we have to make the choice to walk this path. 1Without action, the annual ˛ow of plastic into the ocean will nearly triple by 2040, to 29 million metric tons per year (range: 23 million-37 million metric tons per year), equivalent to 50 kg of plastic per metre of coastline worldwide. Owing to four compounding trendsŠcontinued population growth; increases in plastic use per capita driven in part by increasing production of cheap virgin plastic; shifts to low- value/nonrecyclable materials; and the growing share of plastic consumption occurring in countries with low rates of collectionŠannual plastic ˛ows to the ocean are expected to grow from 11 million metric tons (range: 9 million-14 million metric tons per year) in 2016 to 29 million metric tons in 2040 (range: 23 million-37 million metric tons per year), with consequences for communities, businesses, and ecosystems. Under our Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario, about 4 billion people are likely to be without organized waste collection services by 2040, contributing signi˚cantly to the expected mass of plastic leakage to the ocean. The cost of inaction is high to businesses, communities, and ecosystems; particularly stark is the US$100 billion annual ˚nancial risk that businesses face if governments require them to cover waste management costs at expected volumes and recyclability. 2Governments and industry leaders are stepping up with new policies and voluntary initiatives, but these are often narrow in focus or concentrated in low-leakage countries. By 2040, current government and industry commitments are likely to reduce annual plastic leakage to the ocean by only 7 per cent (±1 per cent) relative to the Business-as- Usual Scenario. A review of the key government initiatives worldwideŠsuch as the European Union™s single-use plastics directive and the growing number of national plastic policiesŠoften reveals a narrow focus on select items (e.g., straws, bags, cups, stirrers, cotton swabs, and bottles), which severely limits the reduction in total leaked plastic mass. Industry has also made high-pro˚le commitments, but these are primarily focused on post-consumer downstream solutions and often in low- leakage countries. Our results indicate that a far greater scale of action at the system level will be needed to meaningfully address the challenge of plastic pollution. Government policies and leadership by consumer goods companies will be critical in driving upstream action on reduction, reuse, and redesign as well as downstream action to improve collection and recycling. Governments and investors also need to curtail the planned expansion in plastic production capacity to prevent locking us deeper into the status quo.. 3There is no single solution to end ocean plastic pollution. Upstream and downstream solutions should be deployed together. To date, much of the debate has focused on either fiupstreamfl (pre-consumer, such as material redesign, plastic reduction, and substitution) or fidownstreamfl solutions (post- consumer, such as recycling and disposal). Our analysis shows that this is a false dichotomy. Upstream solutions that aim to reduce or substitute plastic use are critical and should be prioritized but will need to be scaled carefully to limit adverse social or environmental e˜ects. Downstream solutions are also essential but limited by economic viability and the realistic speed of infrastructure development in the face of growing plastic waste production. Moreover, given the potential negative impacts on human health and the environment of some downstream disposal technologies, their use should be weighed against di˜erent trade-o˜s and carefully controlled. Modelled on their own, no fisingle- solutionfl strategies reduce annual leakage of plastic to the ocean even below 2016 levels by 2040. An ambitious recycling strategy, for example, with ambitious scale-up of Executive Summary 10 critical ˝ndings Plastic waste lines the shore of a lake. Sergey/Adobe Stock

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1110˜˚˛˝˛˙ˆˇ˘ ˘ ˘˚˘˝ 4504003503002502030204020162020200150100500 ˜˚˛˝˙˚ˆBusiness-as-Usual ˜“‘’‘š“ Latest title and notes on report Latest title and notes on report collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure coupled with design for recycling, reduces 2040 leakage by 38 per cent (±7 per cent) relative to BAU, which is 65 per cent (±15 per cent) above 2016 levels. Similarly, an ambitious reduction and substitution strategy, without massive expansion of downstream infrastructure, reduces 2040 leakage by 52 per cent (±9 per cent) relative to BAU, 28 per cent (±5 per cent) above 2016 levels. An integrated approach with new ways to deliver the bene˚ts of today™s plastic is needed to signi˚cantly reduce ocean plastic pollution. 4Industry and governments have the solutions today to reduce rates of annual land-based plastic leakage into the ocean by about 80 per cent (82 ±13 per cent) below projected BAU levels by 2040, while delivering on other societal, economic, and environmental objectives. It is not the lack of technical solutions that is preventing us from addressing the ocean plastic crisis, but rather inadequate regulatory frameworks, business models, and funding mechanisms. Although the technical solutions exist, the incentives are not always in place to scale up these changes fast enough. A reduction of plastic productionŠ through elimination, the expansion of consumer reuse options, or new delivery modelsŠis the most attractive solution from environmental, economic, and social perspectives. It o˜ers the biggest reduction in plastic pollution, often represents a net savings, and provides the highest mitigation opportunity in GHG emissions. As modelled in our integrated System Change Scenario, annual land-based plastic leakage into the ocean can be reduced by around 80 per cent (82 ±13 per cent) by 2040, compared with BAU, through the concurrent, ambitious, and global implementation of multiple synergistic system interventions:Reduce growth in plastic production and consumption to avoid nearly one-third of projected plastic waste generation through elimination, reuse, and new delivery models. Substitute plastic with paper and compostable materials , switching one-sixth of projected plastic waste generation. Design products and packaging for recycling to expand the share of economically recyclable plastic from an estimated 21 per cent to 54 per cent. Expand waste collection rates in the middle-/low-income countries to 90 per cent in all urban areas and 50 per cent in rural areas and support the informal collection sector. Double mechanical recycling capacity globally to 86 million metric tons per year. Develop plastic-to-plastic conversion, potentially to a global capacity of up to 13 million metric tons per year. Build facilities to dispose of the 23 per cent of plastic that cannot be recycled economically, as a transitional measure. Reduce plastic waste exports by 90 per cent to countries with low collection and high leakage rates. Roll out known solutions for four microplastic (<5mm) sourcesŠtyres, textiles, personal care products and production pelletsŠto reduce annual microplastic leakage to the ocean by 1.8 million metric tons per year (from 3 million metric tons to 1.2 million metric tons) by 2040. Taken together, these system interventions describe a credible scenario for dealing with ocean plastic pollution. Under the System Change Scenario, 30 per cent (range: 27 per cent-32 per cent) of BAU plastic demand is reduced, 17 per cent (range: 15 per cent-18 per cent) is substituted, 20 per cent (range: 18 per cent-21 per cent) is recycled, 23 per cent (range: 22 per cent-26 per cent) is disposed of and 10 per cent (range: 9 per cent-12 per cent) remains mismanaged, as shown in Figure 1. 5Going beyond the System Change Scenario to tackle the remaining 5 million metric tons per year (range: 4-7 million metric tons per year) of plastic leakage demands signi˝cant innovation across the entire value chain. In 20 years, we can break the seemingly unstoppable wave of plastic pollution, but the System Change Scenario still does not go far enough. It leaves 5 million metric tons (range: 4 million-7 million metric tons) of plastic ˛owing into the ocean in 2040Šwhich represents a 52 per cent (±8 per cent) reduction from 2016 rates. Achieving the vision of near-zero ocean plastic pollution will require technological advances, new business models, signi˚cant spending, and, most crucially, accelerating upstream innovation. This massive innovation scale-up requires a focused and well- funded R&D agenda exceeding US$100 billion per year by 2040, including moon-shot ambitions, to help middle-/ low-income countries to leapfrog the unsustainable linear economy model of high-income countries. Most crucial will be solutions that focus upstream and can work in rural/ remote areas (where collection economics are challenging), that replace multilayer and multimaterial plastics (e.g., new delivery models or new materials), and that lead to new tyre designs to reduce abrasion of microplastic particles while maintaining safety standards. Innovation will also be critically needed in ˚nancing and policy. The alternative is to greatly increase the ambition levels above the maximum foreseeable levels modelled under the System Change Scenario. 6The System Change Scenario is economically viable for governments and consumers, but a major redirection of capital investment is required. The present value of global investments in the plastic industry between 2021 and 2040 can be reduced from US$2.5 trillion (±US$800 billion) to US$1.2 trillion (±US$300 billion), but the System Change Scenario will require a substantial shift of investment away from the production and conversion of virgin plastic, which are mature technologies perceived as fisafefl investments, to the production of new delivery models, plastic substitutes, recycling facilities, and collection infrastructure, some of which are less mature technologies and perceived as riskier. This shift will require government incentives and risk-taking by industry and investors. The total global cost to governments of managing plastic waste in this low-leakage System Change Scenario between 2021 and 2040 is estimated to be US$600 billion (range: US$410 billion-US$630 billion) in present value, compared with the US$670 billion (range: US$450 billion- US$740 billion) cost to manage a high-leakage system under BAU. 7Reducing approximately 80 per cent (82 ±13 per cent) of plastic leakage into the ocean will bring to life a new circular plastics economy with major opportunitiesŠand risksŠfor industry. Plastic pollution presents a unique risk for producers and users of virgin plastics given regulatory changes and growing consumer outrage. But it is also a unique opportunity for providers of new and existing circular business models and materials. Embarking on the trajectory to get to about 80 per cent (82 ±13 per cent) leakage reduction will create signi˚cant opportunities for companies ahead of the curve, ready to embrace new business opportunities that unlock value from a circular economy that derives revenue from circulation of materials rather than one based on the extraction and conversion of fossil fuels. Large new value pools can be created around better design, better materials, better delivery models, improved sorting and recycling technologies, and smart collection and supply chain management systems. Our analysis shows that through integrated application of upstream and downstream interventions under the System Change Scenario, we could ful˚l the growing global demand for fiplastic utilityfl in 2040 with roughly the same amount of plastic in the system as today, and 11 per cent (±1 per cent) lower levels of virgin plastic production, essentially decoupling plastic growth from economic growth. However, in the meantime, hundreds of billions of dollars are being invested in virgin plastic production plants, locking us deeper into a BAU trajectory every day and making system change ever more urgent. 8A system change would require di˙erent implementation priorities in di˙erent geographies and for di˙erent plastic categories. Di˜erent regions of the world have fundamentally di˜erent contexts and jumping-o˜ points: di˜erent sources of plastic leakage, waste composition, collection rates, policy regimes, labour and capital costs, infrastructure, population demographics, and consumer behaviour. Our model highlights the most urgently needed interventions and the unique set of outcomes projected for di˜erent geographies under the System Change Scenario. High-income countries should prioritize addressing microplastic leakage (which represents 62 per cent [range: 29 per cent-76 per cent] of leakage in high-income countries), technological and policy innovation to incentivize reduction and substitution, and further increasing recycling rates. Middle-/low-income countries should prioritize expanding formal collection, decreasing overall plastic consumption, investing in sorting and recycling infrastructure, and reducing post-collection leakage. However, universally, the top priority is reducing Figure 1: Plastic fate in the System Change Scenario: a ‚wedges™ analysis There is a credible path to signi˝cantly reduce plastic leakage to the ocean but only if all solutions are implemented concurrently, ambitiously, and starting immediately This fiwedgesfl ˚gure shows the share of treatment options for the plastic that enters the system over time under the System Change Scenario. Any plastic that enters the system has a single fate, or a single fiwedge.fl The numbers include macroplastic and microplastic. 713 KB – 78 Pages